TWI Global Business (Div. Of Teruko Weinberg Inc.)
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The new Brazilian president is already flashing a yellow light-parliamentary coordination is essential-
Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro, who took office in January, is already flashing a yellow light. According to the Dataforya poll dated April 7, only 32% of respondents answered “very good” or “good” to the president, “very bad” or “bad.” The result was barely higher than 30% of the respondents. The period from the inauguration of the president to about 100 days is called the honeymoon period, and the people take a somewhat generous view of the president. This low approval rating, just three months after taking office, stimulated not only liberals but also centre-lefts, including numerous “curses” through the president’s parliament and Twitter, as promised but relaxed gun ownership requirements and deregulation. Factors include the introduction of policies to be implemented.
In addition, one of the major causes is that expectations for winning the election campaign were too high. Approximately 60% of the respondents to the polls above rate the Bolsonaro administration’s policies as “lower than expected.” While the government has lost the trust of the people in a series of bribery cases led by the Labor Party (PT), President Bolsonaro who appeals for corruption and crime eradication has become a “savior” for at least some people. It was reflected. During the historic recession, commitments to fiscal consolidation and privatization also gained support from the business community. In fact, the Bolsonaro administration is actively working towards fulfilling its promises. For example, in terms of politics and economics, simplification of administrative procedures, consolidation and integration of ministries, thorough elimination of ministerialism, appointment of Mr. Geddes, who is trusted in the market as the minister of the Ministry of Economy born from the integration of the three ministries, and efforts for infrastructure development There is no end to the list. It is rather unlikely that any policy will improve the world in a short period of three months, and it is thought that the difference between expectations and reality is widening due to the excessive expectations at the beginning.
The pace of recovery in the Brazilian economy is slower than expected. The IMF has lowered its 2019 economic growth forecast from 2.5% in January to 2.1% in April. The view of the government of the people who cannot feel the economic recovery is likely to become even more severe.
Under such circumstances, the realization of pension reform, which is the most important issue, has become indispensable. Pension reform is a constitutional amendment bill that requires a vote of at least three-fifths of the seats in both the House and Senate. You can’t just create a “curse” in Congress like you used to. Even though his Social Liberal Party (PSL) has increased its seats in the previous election, it remains a minority party and requires parliamentary coordination with other parties. Former President Temer had a good reputation for parliamentary coordination, but he still failed to achieve pension reform.
Attention will be focused on how President Bolsonaro, who has lost his approval rating, will coordinate with Congress.