Archives for April 2019

TWI Global Business (Div. Of Teruko Weinberg Inc.)

table of contents:

The new Brazilian president is already flashing a yellow light-parliamentary coordination is essential-

Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro, who took office in January, is already flashing a yellow light. According to the Dataforya poll dated April 7, only 32% of respondents answered “very good” or “good” to the president, “very bad” or “bad.” The result was barely higher than 30% of the respondents. The period from the inauguration of the president to about 100 days is called the honeymoon period, and the people take a somewhat generous view of the president. This low approval rating, just three months after taking office, stimulated not only liberals but also centre-lefts, including numerous “curses” through the president’s parliament and Twitter, as promised but relaxed gun ownership requirements and deregulation. Factors include the introduction of policies to be implemented.

In addition, one of the major causes is that expectations for winning the election campaign were too high. Approximately 60% of the respondents to the polls above rate the Bolsonaro administration’s policies as “lower than expected.” While the government has lost the trust of the people in a series of bribery cases led by the Labor Party (PT), President Bolsonaro who appeals for corruption and crime eradication has become a “savior” for at least some people. It was reflected. During the historic recession, commitments to fiscal consolidation and privatization also gained support from the business community. In fact, the Bolsonaro administration is actively working towards fulfilling its promises. For example, in terms of politics and economics, simplification of administrative procedures, consolidation and integration of ministries, thorough elimination of ministerialism, appointment of Mr. Geddes, who is trusted in the market as the minister of the Ministry of Economy born from the integration of the three ministries, and efforts for infrastructure development There is no end to the list. It is rather unlikely that any policy will improve the world in a short period of three months, and it is thought that the difference between expectations and reality is widening due to the excessive expectations at the beginning.

The pace of recovery in the Brazilian economy is slower than expected. The IMF has lowered its 2019 economic growth forecast from 2.5% in January to 2.1% in April. The view of the government of the people who cannot feel the economic recovery is likely to become even more severe.

Under such circumstances, the realization of pension reform, which is the most important issue, has become indispensable. Pension reform is a constitutional amendment bill that requires a vote of at least three-fifths of the seats in both the House and Senate. You can’t just create a “curse” in Congress like you used to. Even though his Social Liberal Party (PSL) has increased its seats in the previous election, it remains a minority party and requires parliamentary coordination with other parties. Former President Temer had a good reputation for parliamentary coordination, but he still failed to achieve pension reform.

Attention will be focused on how President Bolsonaro, who has lost his approval rating, will coordinate with Congress.

TWI Global Business (Div. Of Teruko Weinberg Inc.)

table of contents:

“Weak waist” diplomacy or? -Mexico President’s reaction to the blockade of the Trump border-

President Trump, who is struggling to deal with the influx of refugees, mainly from Central American countries, announced on March 29 that he would close the border with Mexico the following week, raising concerns not only in Mexico but also in the United States. It spread rapidly. Since the definition of “border blockade” was not clarified, it called for speculation as to whether it applies only to “movement of people” such as immigrants, commuters, and travelers, or whether it also covers logistics between the two countries.

As criticisms from the U.S. parliament, local governments, and industry groups continued, and there were concerns about the impact on the supply chain within the Trump administration, President Trump said (although the actual situation is unknown) that the Mexican government is the country. “Gives the Mexican government a year’s grace because it has tightened crackdowns on refugees near the southern border. If the government does not solve the problem of illegal immigration and drug smuggling, an additional 25% tariff on car imports For the time being, he revealed his attitude of holding a spear. On the other hand, it has been reported that customs officers have been reassigned to refugee measures, and that cargo trucks continue to be congested due to a shortage of staff. The mysterious part of the above series of turmoil is the movement of the Mexican government. President Obrador does not hear any criticisms of President Trump’s unilateral behavior or threats. His appearance, which has repeatedly criticized President Trump during the 2018 election campaign, is completely hidden. Of course, his top priority is not diplomacy but domestic affairs. In diplomacy, the stance is basically non-intervention in domestic affairs. For example, President Obrador continues to emphasize dialogue amid growing criticism of the American states against the Maduro administration in Venezuela.

The Trump administration has ordered refugees to stay on the Mexican side before the meeting with the Immigration Department, but President Obrador has been generous with giving jobs to the stranded refugees. increase. Even though Mexico’s unemployment rate is low, it’s easy to imagine that continuing to give jobs to the rapidly increasing number of refugees will increase dissatisfaction among citizens in border cities such as Tijuana. In addition, Mexico has traditionally been based on a foreign policy that avoids conflicts while maintaining independence with the United States, but since the institutional revolutionary party (PRI) system of the long-term government collapsed after 2000, It is common for the US government to make a strong “declaration”. The Mexican people, who have a strong antipathy for President Trump, are expecting President Obrador’s strong stance during the election campaign, and cannot rule out the possibility that he will not be able to stay “weak” forever.

It will be interesting to see how President Obrador, who has been given a year’s grace, will behave.